PM's job at stake after triple whammy of defeats

LONDON (AFP) - The whiff of rebellion is in the air after the third crushing by-election loss in as many months by the Labour Party of Prime Minister Gordon Brown, reviving talk of replacing him.

An anonymous briefing campaign against Brown looks well under way, with unnamed senior ministers telling the media he must either fight back effectively or fall on his sword.

Barely a year into the job he coveted for so long, many political commentators agree the 57-year-old is now facing a battle for survival and has until Labour's annual conference on September 20 to reverse party fortunes.

"All talk now is not if, but when, an attempt is made to unseat him," the Daily Mail's political editor wrote in one typical article Saturday.

But even a radical change of gear to implement his pledged public service reforms might not be enough, amid increasing signs the 11-year-old centre-left administration made popular by Tony Blair has finally run out of steam.

A ComRes opinion poll for The Independent newspaper Saturday suggested less than a quarter (24 percent) of voters now support Labour and they were a record 22 points behind the Conservative Party.

That would give the centre-right party a landslide general election victory, with a 236-seat majority in parliament.

Anthony King, a professor of government at Essex University, said Labour's chances of winning a fourth, straight term of office before May 2010 were "approaching zero".

"No party with such a low level of support at this stage of a parliament has ever gone on to win the next general election," he wrote in the Daily Telegraph.

Others drew parallels with former prime minister Margaret Thatcher, who was ousted in a leadership challenge a month after losing a by-election in 1990 by a similar margin to Labour's defeat in the Glasgow East constituency Thursday.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) victory -- overturning a 13,507 Labour majority with a 22.54-percent "swing" -- suggested Labour can no longer rely on its traditional core vote, even factoring in unpredictable by-election results.

Labour saw the Tories win the formerly safe seat of Crewe and Nantwich in northwest England on May 22.

And although they were never in the running in another vote in Henley, southern England, on June 26, Labour's candidate fared worse than expected, limping in fifth behind the British National Party.

Brown has blamed each defeat on external factors like the effects of the global economic slowdown and the rising price of oil on the cost of living.

So far, only the usual suspects in Labour's rank-and-file and a prominent union leader have put their heads above the parapet to call for Brown to go.

For the time being, his Cabinet seems happy to allow him to fulfil his aim of "getting on with the job", even though all bar one of them would lose their seat if the margin of Thursday's defeat were repeated at a general election.

Perhaps for good reason: if Brown were to go -- either by being asked to by senior ministers or by losing in an internal contest -- they know his successor would fare little better, as economic growth dwindles further.

And because Brown took over from Blair unchallenged last year, to change leader twice in two years would prompt calls for an early general election, which Labour is on course to lose.

In addition none of the younger ministers tipped for the top job like Foreign Secretary David Miliband, 43, is likely to want to risk being the shortest-serving British prime minister in history.

Nevertheless, the chatter is likely to rumble on over August as Brown holidays in eastern England, potentially making for a volatile September when lawmakers return to London.